Behind the series of attacks on Saudi airports: Why is the costly early warning system silent?

Li Yibin – The Paper

Riyadh, the Saudi capital, located more than 1,000 kilometers from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, is suffering escalating attacks, with explosions echoing throughout the city as residents seek shelter. Office workers in the financial district, some international school students, and diplomats have been ordered to evacuate or seek refuge.

However, in stark contrast to the roar of the missile attack, Saudi Arabia’s expensively built air defense early warning system remained unusually quiet. Reports and social media posts indicate that Saudi citizens received no warning before the airport attack. Public information shows that the Saudi Civil Defense had ceased issuing public attack alerts since September 29th, only resuming them on October 12th.

Regional officials and political analysts point out that while the Saudi government appears to be trying to project an image of calm and security to the international community and its own people, the lack of early warning of attacks has ultimately backfired, exacerbating uncertainty about Saudi Arabia’s domestic security and raising questions about the country’s ability to protect its citizens and tourists.

“The Saudi government wants the best of both worlds: to launch military operations while also trying to win the trust of the people and external stakeholders,” noted Sultan Alamer, senior resident fellow at the Middle East Policy Council, a think tank.

The lack of early warnings has increased anxiety.

Since the outbreak of the Iraq War, almost all Gulf Arab countries have suffered drone and missile attacks from Iran. Qatar’s Ministry of the Interior issues mobile phone alerts before each attack, warning residents to stay indoors and away from windows; Bahrain and Kuwait have repeatedly sounded air raid sirens, urging people to seek refuge.

Since May of this year, Saudi Arabia has been issuing attack alerts to mobile phones and social media accounts through its national early warning system, but the system has ceased to function after the conflict with the Houthi rebels escalated.

According to a tweet from the Saudi Civil Defense on the social media platform X, the last attack alert before the deadly attack on the 10th was issued on September 29th, targeting the southern province of Najran. Since then, the Saudi Civil Defense has continued to issue warnings about severe weather, but has not mentioned any attacks.

Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense has not yet explained why it failed to issue an attack warning to the public before the attack occurred. Instead, on the 12th, it reiterated a regulation issued in March of this year, warning residents not to share pictures, information, or rumors about missile interception and the location of the attack.

The Saudi government’s actions have drawn criticism from some of its Western allies. Reuters reported that Western officials inquired with Saudi authorities about the reason for ceasing attack alerts, only to be told that the alerts were “too disruptive.” Informed officials also revealed that Riyadh had already suffered more than ten attacks before the Saudi Civil Defense resumed issuing attack alerts on the 12th, during which time they had to rely on internal alerts issued by Western embassies in Saudi Arabia.

Despite a series of attacks, Saudi Arabia still opened the World Petroleum Council Energy Conference in Riyadh on the 11th, but according to The New York Times, many oil industry executives, including the CEOs of ExxonMobil and BP, canceled their trips to Riyadh this week to attend the conference.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney said the Saudi government’s attempt to balance issuing public statements about the attacks with preventing unrest within the country ultimately exacerbated public anxiety about the attacks.

“The public propaganda approach they (the Saudi authorities) have adopted seems to be an inevitable result of their predicament… The lack of warning against Houthi attacks has instead created the tensions they are trying to avoid,” Ratni pointed out.

Why are air defense systems so vulnerable?

Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in military equipment procurement, making it the world’s eighth-largest arms spender, but it still appears unable to withstand missile and drone attacks from the Houthi rebels.

According to an Associated Press report citing informed officials, Saudi authorities have launched an investigation to determine why their air defense systems failed to intercept missiles and drones launched by the Houthis, which needed to fly over 1,000 kilometers to reach the area surrounding Riyadh. Preliminary investigations indicate that the Houthis first launched multiple drones, paving the way for a subsequent combined attack using cruise and ballistic missiles.

Dani Zitrinovitz, an expert at the Israel Institute for National Security and a former Israeli military intelligence commander, pointed out that the problem may not lie in Saudi Arabia’s air defense system, but in the sophistication of the missiles launched at it. “Reports indicate that Iran may have shared relevant technologies with the Houthis based on their recent war experience with the United States and Israel, making the missiles more difficult to intercept.”

Last month, several media outlets cited a report from Anthropic stating that Houthi-controlled areas had used AI to assist in the development of guided weapons, but there is no public evidence yet proving that they have successfully used AI to create weapons that can be deployed in actual combat.

According to the UK’s Daily Telegraph, the Houthi rebels have significantly enhanced their missile capabilities. The group claims its latest Palestine-2 ballistic missile has a range of 2,150 kilometers and a speed of up to Mach 16. The Associated Press also reports that the Houthi ballistic missiles possess the ability to maneuver and change course during flight, thus posing a significant challenge to Saudi Arabia’s Patriot air defense system.

Ali Shihabi, an analyst with close ties to the Saudi government, points out that due to Saudi Arabia’s vast territory, the country would struggle to protect all its assets, regardless of whether there is an attack warning. “Saudi Arabia has too much to protect… numerous airports, energy pipelines, and oil facilities. The existing defense system is simply insufficient; the Patriot missile defense system, missile launch sites, and the number of interceptor missiles are inadequate to handle all threats.”

Saudi Arabia also faces a shortage of interceptor missiles for air defense. During the Iraq War, the US and its Gulf allies consumed a large number of interceptor missiles; these munitions are expensive and have manufacturing cycles that take several years. The Guardian points out that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to find a way to stop all incoming Houthi missiles and can only protect specific high-value targets by improving its intelligence gathering and early warning mechanisms.

According to the Associated Press, Saudi Arabia hopes the United States will provide more assistance in responding to Houthi attacks, including direct participation in the strikes. Following the airport attack on April 10, US President Trump stated that he was considering the possibility of a US-led attack on the Houthis.

Houthi political bureau member Mohammed al-Buhaiti told AFP that the group would not hesitate to respond if the United States became involved in the aggression against Yemen. “We will retaliate swiftly and painfully, targeting the United States and all its interests in the region.”

According to a report by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz on the 12th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu sought Saudi Arabia’s permission to participate in the fight against the Houthis through US mediation, but Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not agree, fearing it would trigger a strong negative reaction domestically.